Market cycle
Where the market and economy sit right now — computed live from primary sources (S&P 500 + the Federal Reserve's FRED data). Data & analysis only, not advice. As of 2026-10-14 14:28 UTC.
Bull Market · Expansion (mid)
current phaseExpansion: equities above trend, no recession signal.
The four-phase business cycle. Highlighted = where we are now, per the indicators below. NBER is the official arbiter of US recessions (it dates them with a lag).
Sector rotation
live · 3-month leadershipAll 11 S&P sectors ranked by 3-month return (SPDR ETFs). In a Expansion (mid), the textbook leaders are Technology, Industrials, Communication; right now it's Energy, Technology, Health Care, Communication. Technology, Communication leading now confirms the phase.
S&P 500 — 2 years
^GSPC dailyCycle context
The S&P 500 has held above its 200-day average for 132 trading days (~6 months). For perspective, post-WWII U.S. expansions have averaged about 5 years (NBER) and bull markets run ~5 years / +150% on average — expansions rarely end from age alone; they typically end on a shock, Fed over-tightening, or a credit/inflation imbalance. The curve, Sahm rule and credit-spread readings above are the early-warning gauges to watch.
Sources
Equity regime from the S&P 500 (^GSPC) via Yahoo Finance. Macro from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): yield curve T10Y2Y/T10Y3M, UNRATE, FEDFUNDS, SAHMREALTIME, CPIAUCSL. Official US business-cycle dating: the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Classification rules are transparent and recomputed on every load.